Characteristics of a Kentucky Derby Winner

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/23/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the longest time, thoroughbreds raced four, five, even six times in their three-year-old season prior to the Kentucky Derby. The norm these days is just two or three with the races spaced out a month at a time.

In fact, the last five Derby winners hit the track just twice in their three- year-old campaign before the first Saturday in May. In 2007, Street Sense opened up his season with a nose victory over Any Given Saturday in the Mar. 17 Tampa Bay Derby and then finished second in the Blue Grass four weeks later. The next year, Big Brown picked up back-to-back victories at Gulfstream Park in March before taking home the roses.

Mine That Bird parlayed a pair of losses at Sunland Park in late February and March to win the Derby in 2009. Two years ago, Super Saver won on the slop at Churchill Downs after losing the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby in March and April, respectively. Last year, the lightly raced Animal Kingdom prevailed off two preps - an entry-level allowance loss on Mar. 3 followed by a win in the Spiral on Mar. 26.

As one can see, it doesn't really matter if the horses win or not prior to the Kentucky Derby. The key is to have enough graded earnings before the beginning of May to guarantee a spot in the Run for the Roses.

This year, a few of the key contenders will have only two three-year-old prep races, so for those folks who like to wager on trends, keep the names Union Rags, Sabercat, and maybe Dullahan in mind.

Another key attribute for a Kentucky Derby winner is a victory or a close second in a 1 1/8-mile race. Animal Kingdom (2011), Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (2006), Smarty Jones (2004), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001), and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) all won going nine-furlongs.

Super Saver (second by a neck in 2010), Street Sense (second by a nose in 2007), and Funny Cide (second by one half-length in 2003) all just missed winning at 1 1/8-miles prior to the Derby. The only two years since 2000 this trend has not held true were 2005 and 2009 when Giacomo and Mine That Bird, respectively, crossed the wire first at 50-1.

Giacomo at least had a pair of nine-furlong attempts finishing third, beaten 1 1/4-lengths as the 8-5 favorite in the Sham, and then running fourth, beaten by two in the Santa Anita Derby. Mine That Bird was 13-1 when he ran fourth, beaten 3 1/4-lengths in the Sunland Derby. It is imperative to finish first, second, third, or fourth, in the final prep race as the last horse to win the Derby finishing fifth or beyond was Iron Liege some 55 years ago.

The most noticeable trend is the two-year-old jinx as Apollo in 1882 was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without a start at two. That means Todd Pletcher's Spring Hill Farm, who burst on the scene with a dazzling 6 1/4- length score in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 14, will have a tough time catching up to his contemporaries in the coming months.

THE IMPORTANCE OF A SOLID PEDIGREE

With most of the Kentucky Derby entrants coming to Churchill Downs with fewer and fewer starts, a horses' pedigree is a vital way of narrowing down the field to a more manageable number.

That is one reason why two-year-old champion Hansen is way down on my "Dirty Dozen" list. Despite all the early accomplishments, his breeding does not suggest success as the distances increase.

Hansen's sire Tapit has produced a ton of solid runners, including Trappe Shot, Tapizar, and Stardom Bound, but not many have won past nine-furlongs. His dam side, going back a few generations, lacks any sort of stamina to make up for his distance-challenged sire line.

Another top runner, Discreet Dancer, has all the talent to be one of this year's top milers but asking him to go another quarter-mile might be his undoing.

The jury is out on his sire Discreet Cat as his first crop just turned three this year. Still, his dam, Pretty Discreet, won the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga and his sire, Forestry, sent out Shackleford who won last year's Preakness.

Discreet Dancer comes from a top-notch female line. His second dam, Bering Cruise, is a half-sister to Love Me True, whose son Duke of Marmalade won multiple long-distance Group 1 races overseas. His third dam, Lassie's Lady, is a half-sister to Weekend Surprise, who produced A.P. Indy and Summer Squall.

Nevertheless, Discreet Dancer's dam, West Side Dancer, has produced just one other foal, the four-year-old sprinter, Travelin Man. The odds are strong that Discreet Dancer has a better chance of stretching out his speed than his older half-brother, but winning graded races over a-mile-and-an-eighth is still a question mark.

To that end, the top pedigrees on the 2012 Kentucky Derby trail belong to Sky Kingdom, Alpha, Russian Greek, Algorithms, and Casual Trick.

Wwwlvegas Horseracing Betting News

<< Kvitova, Sharapova reach QFs; Serena shocked at Aussie Open
Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova and former Melbourne titlist Maria Sharapova reached the quarterfinals, while five-time titlist Serena Williams was a stunning fourth-round upset victim Monday at the Au

<< Serena Williams upset at Australian Open
Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Error-prone American Serena Williams was upset Monday at the Australian Open, knocked out in a straight-set loss to Ekaterina Makarova in the fourth round. Williams, the No. 12 seed, hit 37 unfor

<< Hibbert, Pacers hand Lakers 3rd straight loss
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kobe Bryant caught Roy Hibbert with an elbow, breaking the Pacers center's nose. "He didn't mean to do it," Hibbert said -- and apparently it wasn't broken enough. Hibbert scored all of his 1

<< Giants top 49ers on FG in OT, win NFC title
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second time in five seasons, New York Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes got a chance to win the NFC Championship in overtime. He's 2-for-2. The extra minutes at Candlestick Park provided a cruel

<< Ducks open up big lead, hang on late to down Avs
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bobby Ryan had two goals and Jonas Hiller made 43 saves, as the surging Anaheim Ducks held off the Colorado Avalanche, 3-2. Ryan Getzlaf had a goal and an assist for the Ducks, who have won five in a row f

Djokovic, Murray land in Aussie quarters >>
Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning champion Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, who lost in the last two finals in Melbourne, were a pair of fourth-round winners Monday at the Australian Open. The world No. 1 Djokovic was

Chicago hopes to remain Bull-ish at home vs. Nets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The banged-up Chicago Bulls look to stay perfect at home when they entertain the New Jersey Nets tonight from the United Center. The Bulls have been plagued by injuries this season and reigning MVP Derrick Rose is one of t

Spurs seek road success in NOLA >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Antonio's struggles on the road this season have been well documented and the team hopes to change that perspective tonight against the New Orleans Hornets in the Big Easy. The Spurs are just 1-6 away from the Alamo Ci

Short-handed Mavs host surging Suns >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning NBA Finals MVP Dirk Nowitzki is battling a sore right knee and will need some time off to get back to last season's championship form. The Dallas Mavericks were able to win without him Saturday in New Orleans and

Blazers limp home to face Kings >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Portland Trail Blazers are coming off a rough road trip but at least they have the Sacramento Kings next on the docket. The two Western Conference inhabitants will clash tonight in Rip City. Portland defeated the Kings

American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout

An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.

Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off.  Randy was not impressed though.  Paula thought he started off fantastic.  "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either. 

Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed.  Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact.  He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition. 

Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula.  Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.

Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next.  Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential.  Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell.  He sang "Careless Whisper".

22 year old Chris Richardson was up next.  He was listed with +1100 odds coming in.  He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great. 

Nick was boring and pitchy.  Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week.  Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition. 

Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds .  These of course were the early odds.  He was considered original for picking an "odd song".  He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night. 

Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good. 

Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds.  Great voice and a great sense of humor.  He's a real standout.  Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit.  Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig". 

Jared Cotter followed.  He was listed with +2000 odds early on to win the competition.  The judges felt he needs to take more risks but looked good. 

22-year old AJ Talbado, who has tried out for American Idol five times, was up next.  "Kind of a theme park performance" said Simon.  Though the judges felt he performed okay.  Simon did feel AJ might be better than he originally thought.

Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition.  He was the last to perform.  He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start. 

Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys.  Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.